Two recent polls from Florida show encouraging news for John McCain. The
The Fox News/Rasmussen poll, conducted October 19, and SurveyUSA’s October 16 poll show leads of 1 percentage point and 2 percentage points, respectively, for the Republican nominee in the battleground state. These two polls come on the heels of polls by Research 2000 (October 15) and CNN/Time (October 14) which showed leads of 4 and 5 percentage points, respectively, for Barack Obama.
The Fox News/Rasmussen poll, conducted October 19, and SurveyUSA’s October 16 poll show leads of 1 percentage point and 2 percentage points, respectively, for the Republican nominee in the battleground state. These two polls come on the heels of polls by Research 2000 (October 15) and CNN/Time (October 14) which showed leads of 4 and 5 percentage points, respectively, for Barack Obama.
Forbes affiliate Real Clear Politics, which aggregates data from the five most recent state polls, shows a net gain of 1.2 percentage points for McCain (within the margin of error), who now trails Obama by 2 percentage points, 46.6% to 48.6%, in Florida.
After a analyzing the recent Florida polls and looking for statistical significance, we conclude that Obama and McCain are at a statistical tie in Florida. The next few polls, if the trends continue, could provide a better indication of the outcome in Florida, currently gray on the Forbes electoral map, to red for McCain.
The latest national poll averages show Obama leading McCain by 5.7 percentage points, but the national polls have been narrowing since McCain’s low point on October 13.
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