OBAMA BOMBS ON LETTERMAN WITH UNFUNNY TOP-10 LIST

[Reuters]

A clearly desperate Barack Obama turned to attempted humor to salvage his bid for the Democratic nomination that of late has been sinking under the weight of his remarks at a San Francisco $2,300 a person fundraiser and his association with anti-American preacher Jeremiah Wright.

Unfortunately, like many aspiring stand up comedians before him, the candidate from Chicago bombed, adding comedy to the list of activities to be avoided at all costs (like bowling).

In a satellite appearance on Letterman to be aired later tonight, Obama stuck with the tried and true “Top-10 List” shtick—ticking off 10 "Surprising Facts About Barack Obama".

The only problem: The list was not the least bit funny.

At No. 6 on his list was "Earlier today I bowled a 39," a reference to the gutter ball he threw at a "regular guy" campaign event at a bowling alley while campaigning in Pennsylvania.

Other clunkers on the list were: "When I tell my kids to clean their room, I finish with, 'I'm Barack Obama and I approved this message” and (at number 1) "I have not slept since October."

(The sound you just heard was an Obama speechwriter being thrown out of the 6th story window of Obama’s South Bend, Indiana hotel suite.)

Nor did the humor challenged Chicago senator try to take the edge off of his latest Reverend Wright troubles, instead avoiding the mention of anything more controversial than: “…what the heck is up with Paula Abdul?"

Our advice to the Senator: “don’t quit yer day job, kid.”

VIDEO: THE ENTIRE DEMOCRATIC RACE TO DATE IN 7 MINUTES

A (humorous but accurate) video history of the Democratic nominating process to date, courtesy of Slate.

CLINTON MOVES FROM 20% DEFICIT TO LEAD IN NORTH CAROLINA RACE

***BREAKING NEWS***

A new poll published by Insider Advantage on April 30 shows Hillary Clinton moving from a 20 point deficit in the North Carolina Primary race to a 2 point lead.

The results were:

Hillary Clinton: 44%, Barack Obama: 42%, Undecided: 14%

Click here for crosstabs. Click here for party breakdown.

Given the dramatic movement in this poll, as well as the tendency for Obama’s support to be overstated in the tracking polls (as in Pennsylvania, where most tracking polls and the early exit polls showed Obama in the lead just prior to his double digit defeat), as well as the likelihood that the harmful effect of the latest Reverend Wright flap has not yet been fully reflected in the polls, we are predicting a Hillary Clinton upset victory in the Tar heal State, and the beginning of the end of Obama’s presumptive nomination by the Democratic Party.

OBAMA POISED TO LOSE NORTH CAROLINA TO CLINTON

[Moderate Voice]
.
For months it has been a “given” that Democratic Senator Barack Obama was way ahead in North Carolina. But new polls suggest otherwise.

Obama has a big problem: the latest Rasmussen Poll gives Clinton a two point lead — but indicates a TEN POINT DROP in Obama’s polling since Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright’s press conference.

And now this: a slew of polls show a Clinton surge, the Boston Globe reports:
A bevy of new national polls, plus surveys in Indiana and North Carolina — which hold key primaries on Tuesday — suggest that Hillary Clinton is closing the gap since her campaign-saving victory in Pennsylvania last week, and that the controversies dogging Barack Obama are having an impact.

In a national Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, Clinton leads Obama 44 percent to 41 percent. The Illinois senator is viewed unfavorably by 42 percent of all voters, up 9 percentage points since February. Clinton’s unfavorable rating is still slightly higher than Obama’s, but it has dropped slightly. And by 10 percentage points, Democrats now view Clinton as likelier than Obama to beat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. Democrats gave Obama a 4-point edge last month.

The Clinton campaign’s strategy to raise doubts about Obama’s electability is clearly succeeding, but not only due to the two Clintons’ at times Rovian style negative campaigning. Three other contributing factors are Obama’s political bungles, his former Pastor’s insistence on a controversial high profile that sucked the air out of Obama’s daily media coverage, and Clinton’s increasing enthusiasm as a campaigner which many analysts are noting.

It’s clear Obama knows he has a problem.

This morning he went on the Today show (VIDEO HERE) with his wife Michelle — a husband-wife damage control appearance that was reminiscent of when then-Governor Bill Clinton went on 60 Minutes with Hillary Clinton in 1992 to be grilled by Steve Kroft amid allegations of (pre-Oval office) infidelity.

Last night Michelle Obama went on CNN. And on Sunday Obama will enter the Lion’s Den and be on “Meet The Press” with gotchya! journalist Tim Russert. [TO SEND TIM RUSSERT SUGGESTED QUESTIONS FOR SENATOR OBAMA ON MEET THE PRESS THIS SUNDAY, WHERE OBAMA WILL BE QUESTIONED FOR THE FULL HOUR, CLICK HERE.]

But Obama’s immediate concern is likely North Carolina. The vibes coming from polls aren’t good ones. And if he loses there, the ugly and divisive Democratic party race will likely get uglier and more divisive as Clinton moves in for the political kill and Obama pulls out all stops to stabilize his campaign.

Once again — as in all polling — polls are contradictory but this one should be of intense concern to the Obama campaign:

A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina’s May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29.

The results were: Hillary Clinton: 44%Barack Obama: 42%Undecided: 14%

Even with the pollster’s hedge the bottom line is that this is awful news for the Obama campaign. Narrowing polls are one thing in NC; Clinton pulling ahead is another.

OUR TAKE: Stay tuned for a huge game changing upset in North Carolina. It's in the air.....

CLINTON NOW LEADS OBAMA BY 4% IN NATIONAL POLL

[Gallup daily, May 1, 2008]

Hillary Clinton has edged ahead of Barack Obama, 49% to 45%, in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.

This is the seventh day in a row that the Gallup daily national tracking poll has reflected a statistical Obama-Clinton tie.

Moreover, the current 4% margin is the biggest in Clinton's favor since March 17-19 polling, and reflects a small but growing national trend in Clinton's favor. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.) In addition, the Gallup survey also reinforces one released today by Rasmussen Reports, which put Clinton 2 points ahead of Obama nationally.

This could not come at a worse time for Obama with the North Carolina and Indiana primary contests just days away.

Clinton now leads in Indiana in all tracking polls, and Obama’s once 23% margin in North Carolina has been slashed to single digits—with the trend running in /Clinton’s favor.

US NEWS: IT’S TIME FOR OBAMA TO CONSIDER DROPPING OUT

[Opinion-Bonnie Erbe-US News & World Report]

Bonnie Erbe—“who has covered Washington politics since God was a baby”—is leading what may soon be a growing chorus of Democratic voices urging Barack Obama to leave the race for he Democratic nomination, at least if he fails to convincingly trounce Hillary Clinton in North Carolina by double digits.In today’s opinion piece for US News Erbe writes:

“Sen. Barack Obama's response to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's ncendiary appearance on Monday at the National Press Club is not just a day late and a dollar short: It's a month and a half late and a few million dollars short.

“Wright's self-promoting and racially divisive remarks have set back a half-century of progress on race relations in the United States. Obama's long-delayed denunciation of his former minister seems to have come too late to save the senator's political self-immolation.”

Wow, strong stuff—particularly in the face of “conventional” Washington insider wisdom that Obama has had the nomination locked up for months by virtue of his insurmountable pledged-delegate lead, and that the supers are just delaying their annoncement of an Obama victory —which is probably true until it isn’t.Erbe continues:

“We may soon start to see the defection from his campaign of superdelegate support. The New York Times reports, "Eileen Macoll, a Democratic county chairman from Washington State who has not chosen a candidate, said she was stunned at the extent of national attention the episode [Wright's remarks] has drawn, and she said she believed it would give superdelegates pause.

"'I'm a little surprised at how much traction it is getting, and I do believe it is beginning to reflect negatively on Senator Obama's campaign,' Ms. Macoll said. 'I think he's handling it very well, but I think it's almost impossible to make people feel comfortable about this.'"”

To Urbe, who feels that the one, two punch of Obama’s “clinging to guns and religion” remarks last month at a San Francisco fundraiser and the candidate's Reverend Wright problem have mortally wounded him, points to a SurveyUSA North Carolina poll showing Sen. Hillary Clinton closing in fast on Obama there—and observes that the full impact of both these events was not yet felt when the poll [showing Obama’s lead shrinking to 5%] was taken.

“As soon as polls start to show the extent of alienation Obama has produced among white Democratic voters, superdelegates won't be far behind. If Obama does not carry North Carolina next week by double digits, he will be in serious trouble. Look for calls by party leaders for him to drop out if his victory in North Carolina is not convincing.”

Urbe closes with the following to illustrate the magnitude of Obama’s current trouble:

“In case you needed one, here from washingtonpost.com is a refresher on what Wright said on Monday:“From the moment he entered the room, Wright seemed to be looking to stir controversy; he was escorted by Jamil Muhammad , a leader of the Nation of Islam, which contributed to the minister's prominent security detail. Speaking before an audience that included Marion Barry, Cornel West, the New Black Panther Party's Malik Zulu Shabazz and Nation of Islam protocol director Claudette Muhammad, Wright praised Louis Farrakhan, defended the view that Zionism is racism, accused the United States of terrorism, repeated his belief that the government created AIDS to extinguish racial minorities, and stood by his suggestion that "God damn America."

“And remember what Obama said about this man six weeks ago:

“"I can no more disown him than I can disown the black community."”

Is Donna Urbe the leader of a growing chorus, or is her report of Obama’s impending demise (to paraphrase Mark Twain) "much exaggerated"?We will have the first indications when the actual votes in North Carolina and Indiana are tallied after the polls close on May 6.

[UPDATE: BARACK OBAMA’S SITUATION IS SO DIRE THAT, AFTER DUCKING DEBATES IN INDIANA AND NORTH CAROLINA, HE HAS SUBMITTED TO A FULL HOUR THIS SUNDAY ON MEET THE PRESS--WHICH IS A HUGE RISK. TO SEND TIM RUSSERT SUGGESTED QUESTIONS FOR SENATOR OBAMA ON MEET THE PRESS THIS SUNDAY, WHERE OBAMA WILL BE QUESTIONED FOR THE FULL HOUR, CLICK HERE.]

CLINTON HAS HUGE LEAD OVER OBAMA IN WEST VIRGINIA

The most recent West Virginia poll we could find that handicaps the Democratic primary in that state was conducted by Rassmussen on March 13—at the height of the Reverend Wright Controversy. Therefore, it is fitting that we consult this poll for guidance now that we are—again—at the height of the Revered Wright controversy:

CLINTON 55%, OBAMA 27%

OK, we know what some of you Obama diehard hopefuls are thinking: That poll was taken six weeks ago. Obama could have considerably narrowed that TWENTY EIGHT PERCENT gap by now.

If history is any guide, that is unlikely.

Just check out the American Research Group’s West Virginia poll conducted in April last year. The poll showed that Clinton was leading Obama in West Virginia with 37% to 22% democratic vote.

Mark Blankenship Enterprises’s West Virginia poll conducted from 18-21 February, 2008 showed Clinton leading Obama with 43% to 22% democratic vote.

Now consider this: In Kentucky, Clinton enjoys a 36 point lead.

Indeed, North Carolina may be the only remaining primary that Barack Obama has any chance of winning, and only because of the huge percentage of black voters (40%) that comprise Democratic registered voters there. (But Obama’s prospects in the Tar Heal State are not looking too rosy either. See here and here.)