EXPERTS: CLINTON RUNAWAY PENNSYLVANIA VICTORY LIKELY

[Source: Politically Uncorrected blog, Franklin & Marshall, hat tip to The Swamp]

Hillary Clinton is now up by as much as 26 points in the latest Pennsylvania polling, and Obama’s negatives have increased by ten points, according to the Pennsylvania based Franklin & Marshall Center for Politics and Public Affairs, and their “Politically Uncorrected” blog.

How bad does it look for Obama in PA? Really bad, Franklin & Marshall reports:

“Just how bad is documented by some key findings from a series of polls, including the Franklin and Marshal College Poll, all released recently. Almost none of the results bode well for Obama. Across the board Clinton is winning and winning big. She has decisively stopped Obama’s earlier momentum in Pennsylvania—and seems set for a romp.

“Statewide among Democrats, Clinton holds a lead that ranges from 16 to 26 points. The Real Clear Politics consensus estimate is roughly 17 points. She is winning every major region of the state except Philadelphia, while Obama has actually slipped slightly with blacks and more substantially with younger voters—two demographics that are critical backstops for him in the contest. He has also lost support with other key constituencies including white males and evangelicals.

“Moreover Clinton is seen by voters as the overwhelming favorite to deal with the economy and healthcare, two of the three issues Pennsylvania voters care most about, and she is virtually tied with Obama as the candidate voters most support to end the war.”

Moreover, the poll demographic breakdowns are really depressing for Obama, seemingly indicating that inroads that the candidate made weeks ago with white voters and women have not only evaporated, but reversed course:

1. Appeal among Key Groups of Likely Voters: Clinton leads among women (57% to 29%), whites (57% to 29%), ages 55 and older (55% to
29%), union member households (67% to 26%), and Born Again Christians (45% to 38%). She also leads among Catholics (26 points) and Protestants (23 points). Obama has the clear edge only among non-whites (76% to 12%). Obama and Clinton are tied or virtually tied (within sampling error) among younger, college-educated, and male voters. (Source: Franklin & Marshall College Poll)

2. Support across Major Regions of the State: Clinton leads in every region of the state except Philadelphia and has overwhelming leads in
the Northeast, Northwest, and Central Pennsylvania. She leads two to one in the Northeast and almost two to one in the Northwest and Central Pennsylvania. At this point only Philadelphia and the Philly suburbs (Southeast Pennsylvania) seem competitive for Obama. (Source: Franklin & Marshall College Poll)

3. Convincing on the Critical Issues: On the issues that voters say are most important, Clinton is controlling the field. Among voters who say the economy is most important, she is up 15 points. Among healthcare voters, she is up 19 points. Among voters who rank leadership highest, she is up 30 points, and among those who say electability is most important, she leads by 15 points. (Source: Quinnipiac University Poll)

Franklin & Marshall does throw Obama a bone or two at the end of the post:

“To a remarkable degree for a candidate down by double digits, Obama may still control his own fate. In the next couple of weeks, we will see what he makes of that opportunity.”

As to whether the authors damn Obama by faint praise, we leave that conclusion up to the reader.

What we think: If Pennsylvania voters disliked the Reverend Wright fiasco, wait until they get a load of the books-on-tape version of Obama’s first book—in the candidate’s own voice, throwing the N-word around like he was Reverend Wright. (See here.)

Stay tuned. The Pennsylvania primary is still 30 days away.