[Gallup.com]Today, May 2, 2008, marks the eighth day in a row where Obama’s former 10 point lead in Gallup’s national tracking poll for the democratic nomination has been reduced to a statistical tie (Clinton continues to hold a slight lead in the poll, which is within the margin for error).
But there is more bad news for Barrack Obama today from Gallup.
In the national tracking poll for the general election, McCain now beats Obama by six points—with McCain and Clinton in a statistical tie.
This is not good for Obama—especially coming on the eve of next Tuesdays primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina.
Obama has such a stunning demographic advantage there—with 40% of North Carolina democrats being black, a group that Obama has been dominating—that a win in that state by Clinton on Tuesday would most certainly turn the Democratic race for the party’s nominee on its head.
And there are some early indications that a North Carolina upset is in the works, including an Insider Advantage poll showing Clinton with a 2% lead there, and other polls reflecting trends in Clinton’s favor.
However, it will take the actual vote count to determine whether Obama will continue to trend downward until election and by how much—particularly given the polls’ tendency to overstate Obama’s lead in the recent primary contests including Pennsylvania.
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