NEW POLL: CLINTON HAS 12 POINT LEAD OVER OBAMA IN INDIANA

***BREAKING NEWS****

[SurveyUSA]

In SurveyUSA’s final tracking poll before the Indiana primary Hillary Clinton has a commanding 12 point lead over the senator from Illinois Barack Obama.

This poll is of particular interest to us because SurveyUSA was the only poll to get Clinton’s 10% win in California on Super-Tuesday exactly right. (Zogby, by contrast, gave Obama a 12 point lead on the eve of the California primary.)

Particularly given Obama’s tendency to over-poll, today’s poll showing Clinton winning Indiana 54% to 42 percent is more than intriguing.

SurveyUSA said today:

“24 hours untill votes are counted in the Indiana Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama in the symbolically important popular vote, and possibly by enough to pick up more than a trivial number of net Convention delegates, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-primary tracking poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. In 4 tracking polls over the past 5 weeks, Clinton has never polled lower than 52%, Obama has never polled higher than 43%.

“At the wire, they finish: Clinton 54%, Obama 42%. Among males, the two have been tied in 3 of the 4 tracking polls. Among females, Clinton has always led by at least 14, and finishes ahead by 22. Among Republicans and Independents, the two are effectively tied. Among Democrats, Clinton finishes ahead by 19. Clinton leads among Conservatives, Moderates and Liberals. She leads among Pro Life and Pro Choice voters, among regular and not-so-regular church goers. In Northern Indiana, she leads by 11. In Central and Southern Indiana, she leads by 27. In greater Indianapolis, Obama leads. Among voters under 35, Obama leads. Among voters over 35, Clinton leads.

“Full results and tracking graphs are here.”