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Friday, May 2, 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR TUESDAY: NC: CLINTON BY 2, INDIANA: CLINTON BY 10

We are once again going out on a limb here and predicting two more highly volatile primary races. Such predictions are risky business—just ask John Zogby about his ridiculously inaccurate tracking polls on the eve of the California and Pennsylvania primary races.

Nevertheless, we once again race in where angels and pundits fear to tread and make the following time and date stamped predictions.

NORTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Clinton by 2%.

In view SurveyUSA’s stellar and contrarian performance in correctly predicting—and being the only poll to correctly predict--Clinton’s 10 point California win on Super-Tuesday, that poll giving Obama a dwindling 5% lead three days ago, the trend, out feeling that the full effect of the Reverend Wright has not yet shown in the polling, and the Bradley effect that is in play in this race—we are going out on a limb and predicting a narrow but stunning Clinton victory.

INDIANA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Clinton by 10%

This one's a little easier to call. All major polls now give varying degrees of lead to Hillary Clinton—currently averaging 6%.

But we believe that Obama continues to over poll among white voters (who do not want to seem racist) and that the trend toward Clinton in this race will continue in the three days until the Hoosier State votes on Tuesday.

OK, the comments are open for you to explain the folly of our predictions or to express your own.

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