The lead: Hillary Clinton won the commanding double digit lead in Pennsylvania just about everyone said she needed to keep alive her bid for the Democratic nomination, raising $2.5 million online within two hours of it becoming obvious she would win, and decreasing her deficit in the popular vote by over 200,000 net votes.
The back story: 80% of the tracking polls leading up to last night’s contest, and all of the network exit polls were dead wrong, overestimating how well Barack Obama was doing in the contest relative to Mrs. Clinton, a phenomenon known as “over polling”—calling into question the accuracy of tracking polls in Indiana and North Carolina as predictors of those races. Poll respondents are reluctant to say how they are going to vote for and whether they have voted for Obama—something pollsters also call the “Bradley effect”.
Clinton, who wound up thumping Barack Obama by winning 10% more of the Pennsylvania vote than he did, dominated in most demographic categories and in most counties—ceding only Philadelphia and a couple adjacent eastern suburbs and capturing the rest.
Clinton got 55 percent of the vote to Obama's 45 percent in yesterday's Democratic presidential primary. She also narrowed his popular-vote advantage in contested elections and caucuses by some 200,000 votes to about 600,000—but after considering Florida ) but not Michigan) Clinton only has to make up 200,000 additional net votes to erase Obama’s popular vote lead.
This was a fantastic victory for Hillary Clinton, considering Barack Obama’s financial advantage, and his all out effort to go for the knock-out punch in the keystone state.
Obama spent a record $2.2 million a week in Pennslyvania on television advertising alone—a record for the Keystone State for any campaign. Obama outspent Clinton by a margin of 3-to-one, and made over 150 appearances in the state over a six week period
The back story: 80% of the tracking polls leading up to last night’s contest, and all of the network exit polls were dead wrong, overestimating how well Barack Obama was doing in the contest relative to Mrs. Clinton, a phenomenon known as “over polling”—calling into question the accuracy of tracking polls in Indiana and North Carolina as predictors of those races. Poll respondents are reluctant to say how they are going to vote for and whether they have voted for Obama—something pollsters also call the “Bradley effect”.
Clinton, who wound up thumping Barack Obama by winning 10% more of the Pennsylvania vote than he did, dominated in most demographic categories and in most counties—ceding only Philadelphia and a couple adjacent eastern suburbs and capturing the rest.
Clinton got 55 percent of the vote to Obama's 45 percent in yesterday's Democratic presidential primary. She also narrowed his popular-vote advantage in contested elections and caucuses by some 200,000 votes to about 600,000—but after considering Florida ) but not Michigan) Clinton only has to make up 200,000 additional net votes to erase Obama’s popular vote lead.
This was a fantastic victory for Hillary Clinton, considering Barack Obama’s financial advantage, and his all out effort to go for the knock-out punch in the keystone state.
Obama spent a record $2.2 million a week in Pennslyvania on television advertising alone—a record for the Keystone State for any campaign. Obama outspent Clinton by a margin of 3-to-one, and made over 150 appearances in the state over a six week period
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