***BREAKING NEWS*** April 9, 2008--updated-see bottom of post*****[RealClearPolitics.com]
More evidence that the Pennsylvania primary race is now trending in Senator Clinton’s favor: The Real Clear Politics (RCP) poll average for the Keystone State race now has all Pennsylvania polls favoring Clinton over Obama.
Last week one Pennsylvania poll factored into the RCP poll average briefly had Obama leading Clinton.
This change in Clinton’s favor has raised the RCP average for Pennsylvania today, April 9, 2008 to Clinton +7.4—up from just +5 just a week ago.
Moreover, one of the most recent Pennsylvania tracking polls, the SurveyUSA poll, has Clinton leading Obama by 18 points as of April 7, 2008.
This is remarkable, given the $3.9 million that Obama has pumped into the race in Pennsylvania in the form of TV time during the last two weeks, compared to Clinton’s $1.2 million.
In addition, Obama has spent millions in Pennsylvania on an all out drive to register new voters sympathetic to the candidate, and on a huge get out the vote effort in over 20 offices in PA. Moreover, Obama has spent a lot of time in Pennsylvania.
If this trend continues—and we think it will—we predict Clinton will win the Keystone State by double digits.
Obama initially argued that the 30 day run up to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22 favored him, because the more time the voters have to get to know him, the better he does. Therefore, the race in Pennsylvania will be an important test of whether Obama still has his original appeal as a candidate or is on the decline in popularity.
The Pennsylvania primary could not be more important to Hillary Clinton since even her husband the former president has acknowledged that if she fails to win there she will have to drop out of the race for the Democratic nomination.
APRIL 9--1:22 PM UPDATE:
The Insider Advantage Pennslyvania daily tracking poll says Hillary Clinton judped to 10% yesterday--bumping the RCP average to 7.9+ for the NY Senator an former First Lady.
****READ*****READ***READ
New InsiderAdvantage Poll
Latest InsiderAdvantage Poll Pennsylvania Primary: Clinton 48%, Obama 38%Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff
April 9, 2008 — A new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton regaining some ground she’d previously lost to Sen. Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary race.
Here are the results of our new poll:
Clinton 48%
Obama 38%
Undecided 13%*
The survey was conducted April 8 among 681 likely registered voters in the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic primary. The data have been weighted for age, race and gender with a margin of error of +/-3.6%.
InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Sen. Clinton has made progress among both men and among all white voters. Her support among women also appears to be consolidating.
“My guess is that whatever damage she might have sustained by recent gaffs and media missteps have been largely discounted by the public. The race in Pennsylvania is clearly still fluid. But, at least for now, it’s tending back towards the result that was originally anticipated by
most – a Clinton lead. “Her big task now is to maintain a double-digit lead and expand on it; Obama’s is to force her back into a single-digit race. Clinton needs a resounding victory in Pennsylvania to relieve the pressure on her to quit the presidential race,” said Towery. Click here for crosstabs.
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