PENNSYLVANIA POLL AVERAGE: CLINTON LEAD INCREASES TO 8.6%

We leave it up the main stream media to lead the Obama cheer by selectively highlighting every new Pennsylvania poll that seems to favor Barack Obama. (For instance, the Bloomberg poll out today that shows Clinton with a mere 5% lead in the Keystone State.)

The so called "poll of all polls"—the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Pennsylvania poll (an average of all polls) shows that Clinton’s Pennsylvania lead is trending upward.

The RCP Pennsylvania poll average now shows Clinton beating Obama by 8.6 points. In addition, of the three polls released today, two (Rasmussen and SurveyUSA) show Clinton leads in Pennsylvania by 9 points and 14 points, respectively.

A third Pennsylvania tracking poll not included in the RCP average, the ARG* poll released yesterday, has Clinton winning in Pennsylvania by 20 points—so all of these tracking polls need to be taken with a large dose of salt.

Wait a minute, isn’t Bloomberg Media owned by the man who wants to be Obama’s running mate?

All conspiracy theories aside, the Pennsylvania race remains volatile, give the large number (18%) of Pennsylvanian’s eligible to vote in that state’s primary election on April 22 that remain undecided.

Given the large percentage of undecided voters in Pennsylvania this close to the election a further note of caution is warranted, as noted by Rasmussen yesterday:

“Among voters from households where someone owns a gun, Clinton leads by seventeen points…Clinton is now viewed favorably by 74% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters…Clinton leads by twenty-seven points among White Voters.”

It seems to us that Clinton’s 27% lead among white voters (82% of likely Democratic primary voters) gives her a pretty significant edge in Pennsylvania. We are standing by our prediction of a 20%+ Clinton blow-out in the Keystone State.