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Monday, April 7, 2008

CLINTON WOULD LEAD IN DELEGATES IF WINNER TAKE ALL

[RasmussenReports.com]

Even as the Obama and Clinton campaigns fight frantically to establish the appropriate yard-stick by which to judge the will of the American people, one fact has been largely ignored: Obama's significant delegate lead is largely a product of the Democrats' unique delegate allocation system, Rasmussen says.

What would the race look like if the Democrats used the same "winner-take-all" system used in the Republican Party? Clinton would lead, that’s what:

“If the Democrats were to allot their current state delegate totals in a winner-take-all format, Clinton would actually have a significant delegate advantage. Despite having won only 14 recognized contests
to Obama's 30, Clinton would currently have a 120 (1738 to 1618) total delegate lead and a remarkable 167 (1427 to 1260) pledged delegate lead. These numbers give Texas' "prima-caucus" delegates to Clinton and do not include Florida, Michigan or the 693 total delegates and 566 pledged delegates still to be won in the next few months. [...] [I]n a race that has become principally about winning the several hundred uncommitted super-delegates, this argument could be used to provide cover for electors currently unwilling to go against the race's "clear leader".”

This may be an effective argument for Sen. Clinton to justify going forward in the race, especially if she is able to pull closer to even in the popular vote after the contests in Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina, Rasmussen says. And it certainly undercuts the "will of the people" argument favoring Obama.


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