[The New York Times]
According to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, Barack Obama’s support among Democrats nationally has softened over the last month, particularly among men and wealthy voters. Voters have taken a less positive view of him than they did after his burst of victories in February, the Times is reporting.
In fact, the Times suggest that the survey results indicate that Obama’s popularity peaked in February, following his string of victories. In other words, its all down hill for Obama—but how far down remains to bee seen.
The poll showed that Obama now leads Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, 47 percent to 42 percent; his lead was 50 percent to 38 percent in late February, when McCain still faced primary opposition from Mike Huckabee. The latest poll shows Clinton leading McCain, 48 percent to 43 percent.
Clinton and Obama are now effectively tied among Democratic voters, with 46 percent saying they want the party to nominate Obama, compared with 43 percent for Mrs. Clinton--well within the poll margin for error. In late February, 54 percent of Democrats said they wanted Obama to win the nomination, compared with 38 percent for Clinton.
Obama’s lead among men has disappeared during that period. In February, 67 percent of men wanted the party to nominate him compared with 28 percent for Clinton. Now 47 percent back him, compared with 42 percent for her, a difference within the poll’s margin of error. Similarly, his lead has shrunk among whites, voters making more than $50,000 annually and voters under age 45.
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According to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, Barack Obama’s support among Democrats nationally has softened over the last month, particularly among men and wealthy voters. Voters have taken a less positive view of him than they did after his burst of victories in February, the Times is reporting.
In fact, the Times suggest that the survey results indicate that Obama’s popularity peaked in February, following his string of victories. In other words, its all down hill for Obama—but how far down remains to bee seen.
The poll showed that Obama now leads Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, 47 percent to 42 percent; his lead was 50 percent to 38 percent in late February, when McCain still faced primary opposition from Mike Huckabee. The latest poll shows Clinton leading McCain, 48 percent to 43 percent.
Clinton and Obama are now effectively tied among Democratic voters, with 46 percent saying they want the party to nominate Obama, compared with 43 percent for Mrs. Clinton--well within the poll margin for error. In late February, 54 percent of Democrats said they wanted Obama to win the nomination, compared with 38 percent for Clinton.
Obama’s lead among men has disappeared during that period. In February, 67 percent of men wanted the party to nominate him compared with 28 percent for Clinton. Now 47 percent back him, compared with 42 percent for her, a difference within the poll’s margin of error. Similarly, his lead has shrunk among whites, voters making more than $50,000 annually and voters under age 45.
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Our take: While the New York Times goes out of its way to minimize the poll's significance to the Democratic nominating process, we profoundly disagree. (See prior post, below.) Obama's appeal has clearly peaked and is on the decline--particularly with the cross-over demographic groups that lifted Obama to victory in states like Wyoming (e.g., male voters, white voters).
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In our view, several things account for this decline. We believe that primarily, when Team Obama started trading the Clinton surrogate attacks blow for blow (and then some), Obama was revealed to be what he is: Just another calculating politician, albeit a very smart, slick, and skilled one.
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And regardless of the mainstream media's attempts to declare the Wright affair over and done, Obama--by attempting to excuse Wright's foaming at the mouth racist, anti-Jewish, and anti-American rants with the residual pain of slavery, while refusing to distance himself from Wright--has cemented the black vote to be sure, but cost Obama his former majority support among white Democratic voters in the process.
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OUR BOTTOM LINE: The trend is in Hillary Clinton's favor. Whether she has enough time for Obama's decline to be made fully manifest before the super-delegates decide the Democratic race remains to be seen. But you can bet these dramatic poll results (and others like them) will be on the minds of the super-delegates when they choose the party's nominee.
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