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Tuesday, April 1, 2008

OBAMA RACE SPEECH FAILS TO SMOOTH OVER INDIANA VOTERS

[Bloomberg]

April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Andrea Helmer was interested in Barack Obama until she heard sound bites of his fiery pastor's sermons. Last week, she volunteered for Hillary Clinton's campaign in Indiana.

"As things came out regarding some of the things his pastor has said, I got concerned,'' said Helmer, a 36-year-old respiratory therapist and mother of two in Evansville, Indiana.

Interviews with dozens of Democrats in this overwhelmingly white region -- where voters will go to the polls in the May 6 primary -- suggest residual concerns over the controversy involving Obama's former pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

To be sure, this flies in the face of most polls taken after Obama's widely praised March 18 speech on race and the Wright controversy. In a March 30 Gallup survey, he had widened his lead over Clinton among Democratic voters to 10 points. A week earlier, he was also up 10 points in a Pew Research poll.

But consider this: The Real Clear Politics average daily tracking poll—an amalgamation of all five top national polls (Gallup, Rasmussen, Fox, Pew, NBC/WSJ)—reports today that Obama’s national lead among Democrats has dwindled to 3.4%.

And in several polls cited by Real Clear Politics Clinton is either ahead by two points or tied with Obama nationally.

Last month, excerpts of sermons in which Wright is heard saying "God damn America'' and "U.S. of KKKA'' were broadcast on television and distributed over the Internet. In response, Obama delivered what his aides billed as a major address on race on March 18 in which he condemned the remarks.

That didn't repair the damage for some white voters, said Trent Van Haaften, an Indiana state representative from Mount Vernon who is backing Obama.

While Obama, 46, is far behind Clinton, 60, in the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, the Indiana contest is competitive. Even if he loses in Pennsylvania, winning in Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later could allow him to wrap up the nomination. But in light of the Reverend Wright scandal, and Obama later excusing Wright's racist and anti-American views by blaming it on slavery, can he win in Indiana?

The recent intense focus on Wright is especially complicating Obama's efforts to appeal to some in culturally conservative southwest Indiana, which has a record of electing Republicans and conservative Democrats. Evansville is 86 percent white and 11 percent black.

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